is the u.s. economy inching ahead like he says, or are we inching toward a recessionary year-end tax hike? here now we welcome back michelle gerard, senior economist, managing director with rbs, and david malpass, senior president and former deputy assistant treasury secretary. inching ahead, michelle. and what happens if we run smack into a tax hike? >> well, that's it. we are moving ahead at around a 2% pace in the third quarter, and i think that's where we'll be in the fourth quarter. but you're right. it doesn't matter because if the full fiscal cliff were to hit, and we're not just talking about the bush tax cuts, we're talking about the amt, which is really just as much of a drag as the middle-class tax cut, the payroll tax hike going -- or cut going away, unemployment benefits going away. if all of that happened, i think we'd be talking about a contraction in gdp in the first quarter on the magnitude of perhaps 3%. >> and how much would that drive up unemployment, michelle? just to follow